The Power Brief

The most important sentence in the International Monetary Fund’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook is not the headline number. It is not the modest upgrade of global growth to 3.3%, nor is it the diplomatic warning about "trade tensions." It is a quiet, terrifying admission tucked inside the technical appendix on productivity:"Global growth... depends on the speed of adoption and improvements in AI readiness globally. A sharp reassessment of AI-driven productivity gains could trigger market corrections." Combine that with leaders like Canadian PM Carney and German Chancellor Merz openly declaring this week at Davos the end of the American Empire, and the new geopolitical chessboard is becoming clear - Russia, US and China as unilateral poles, The western OECD countries as a "middle power" coalition, and then the rest of the world in patchwork of regional and cross regional trading/defense coalitions. Our energy value chains are ultimately inputs in a grand AI arms race in which great powers are increasingly committed to unilateralism, regardless of political capital.

Several countries across Africa, most prominently South Africa, spent 2025 laying the regulatory and grid distribution frameworks for the future robust intraday and day-ahead electricity trade. And with Gigawatts of solar, wind and green hydro projects commissioned across the continent, the immediate market opportunity is in the low 10 digits in USD terms. In this final edition of The Power Brief in 2025, let's review the year end and look forward to the market opportunities that await Asoba in 2026.

Walking back against the climate orthodoxy of "counting carbon above all" that demands climate austerity in the Global South, Gates argues that quality of life metrics and removal of the green premium on cost of capital are the most important targets in climate adaptation. Arguably opportunistic, given his actual investments on the ground, but still an important influencer in bringing science back into policy solutions for climate. Governments themselves have already been pivoting hard in this direction throughout 2025, framing large renewable infrastructure in terms of resiliency rather than climate

Instead of massive datacenters, the future of high intensity computing-like Generative AI-likely resides with purpose built, industry-specific tools deployed directly at point of use. This is likely how countries in the global south will develop digital sovereignty and avoid the environmental/power grid costs seen in the United States, particularly in more climate vulnerable regions.